国内外基于在轨碰撞概率的理论计算显示, 近地轨道太空物体的容量也有上限阀值,随着轨道确定精度和碰撞预警技术的提高, 这个门限可能会稍微提高,然而以每年2%～5%的速度增加的“太空垃圾”,将导致到2300年任何东西都无法进入太空轨道。为防止这种悲剧的发生,太空急需国际社会的共同治理,共同制定相关规则来约束太空活动。本文首先从太空交通“繁忙”和“爆发式”增长的角度分析交通运行规则的重要性,再借鉴陆海空域的交通管理规则和基本原则,明确太空交通应该遵循的优先级,最后提出太空交通管理的基本规则。
Theoretical calculations based on the probability of collision in orbit at home and abroad show that there is an upper threshold for the capacity of space objects in near-Earth orbit; and with the improvement of orbit determination accuracy and collision warning technology, this threshold may be slightly increased; however, the increase of “space junk” at a rate of 2%-5% per year will lead to a situation where nothing will be able to enter space orbit by 2300.To prevent such a tragedy, there is an urgent need for joint international governance; rules must be developed to regulate everyone's space activities.This paper firstly analyses the importance of traffic rules from the perspective of the “busy” and “explosive” growth of space traffic, then draws on the rules and basic principles of traffic management in land, sea, and airspace to identify the priorities that space traffic should follow, and finally proposes basic rules for space traffic management.
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